As is a major yearly tradition of mine, I spend all year doing my absolute best to watch as many movies as possible (I logged 64 films from 2022 last year!), many of which find themselves in competition in the first quarter of the new year at Hollywood’s Biggest Night ⟨™⟩, the Oscars! Like I’ve found for almost every year of my life since I began deeply caring about this stupid little awards show, I end the night typically quite disappointed. However, every once in a while, we get a year like 2020 (featuring the films of 2019, of course) where I find myself pleasantly surprised at the conclusion of the ceremony. I am hoping 2023 provides us with a night like that, though I am dubious, of course!
Though the Oscars don’t *actually* matter, I have long championed them, since I was about 14 or so, because the movies that see themselves nominated and winning can often find second lives theatrically, bringing in more money at the box office and exposing more people to better art (hopefully). This can only be seen as a positive, in my eyes. I have long been a proponent of the idea that there is no art-form more vital to culture than cinema and in a world where the Oscars matter, this can help guide and shape the movies that make it in theaters that matter, in America, at least.
Like every year, there were plenty of incredible films that weren’t recognized in any meaningful way by the academy this year (DECISION TO LEAVE and NOPE come to mind) and there were also a few awful movies that found themselves nominated for awards (I’m looking at THE WHALE and EMPIRE OF LIGHT), but I will continue to spend every day hoping and wishing that one day the academy will come together and put together a more comprehensive and proper collection of excellent films to honor. As a whole, this is a moderately solid year of nominees, at least. It certainly lacks the heights of the heavy hitters from 2022 (LICORICE PIZZA, DRIVE MY CAR, and DUNE), but it also finds itself without any truly abominable movies like the 2022 crop featured (namely, BELFAST and DON’T LOOK UP, as well as the mediocre eventual winner, CODA), so that could be seen as an improvement!
As I’ve done for the last few years since running this site, I am going to go through and break down every category, as well as the ten Best Picture nominees and give my opinions and denote in each category what SHOULD win (in a fair and just world), as well as what WILL win. This year, I’ll additionally mark a film to watch out for in each category!
I’ll also at the very end of the entire thing list a couple of bets and parlays that I personally find interesting for locations that can gamble on the Oscars.
But let’s begin with the ten Best Picture nominees. Normally, I would talk about them in alphabetical order, but since voting has transitioned to a true preferential ranked choice voting system for Best Picture a little more than a decade ago, I think it would be more fun to break down each nominee in the way I would rank the nominees, so let’s get on with it:
10) EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE dir. Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan
Funny enough, the movie that will probably take home six or more Oscars (many of the biggest ones of the night, too), also happens to be the weakest of the ten nominees! It’s a totally fine, slightly more than mediocre, movie that has been completely overhyped by some insufferable fans on the internet and also probably over-hated by a large faction on the internet as well. It’s fine! It isn’t really worth all that much attention! It features strong acting from the two key players (Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan) and fine enough acting from the ancillary performers. It’s a movie about a family trying to better understand each other in the face of “evil” with a bunch of action set pieces, over-editing, and multiverse hijinks that rarely look good onscreen. In the end, everybody realizes there is nothing stronger than love. It’s potent enough at moments but also can never stop itself from inserting a terrible and inane joke every few moments that would’ve been better suited in 2012! It’s also completely emotionally manipulative, relying on previous powerful imagery from better filmmakers and films to evoke reactions out of audiences. It’s fine. It’s like a Marvel movie for people who want to feel like they’re smarter or deeper than they actually are!
3/5
9) WOMEN TALKING dir. Sarah Polley
Another fine movie! This is a film about a pack of women from a Mennonite group who, in 2010, discover the men in their community have been violently abusing and raping them in their sleep. What ensues is a couple of the key women from the group coming together in a barn and discussing how they should proceed for the next 100 minutes. It’s mostly well-acted, with strong performances from Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, and Rooney Mara, as well as others. It’s also a bit obvious and overly heavy-handed and has perhaps the worst color gradient of any movie from 2022. It’s miserable and drab to look at, and look, I understand the symbolism… but it’s still an utter eyesore. It’s a mostly whatever film that will probably be adapted for the stage soon and win 11 Tony Awards or something. A bit better than EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, but not by much!
3/5
8) ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT dir. Edward Berger
For a movie that is so well-crafted technically and so beautiful looking, this is banal in a lot of ways throughout the very long runtime. It’s a World War I film where a group of boys (namely, one protagonist) comes to the shocking and surprising revelation that war is senseless and nightmarish and the longer one is involved in it, the longer they remain trapped in a hellish existence! This does nothing to rework or rewrite the genre, which I suppose can be fine sometimes, but it then needs to have SOME sort of gimmick (think: 2019’s 1917) to keep audiences interested. I sat down knowing exactly what I was going to get out of the movie and found myself a tad bit annoyed when I essentially got that. Fine movie and well-made, but overall, too long, too redundant, and equipped with a droning and almost-wretched score. There is a moment in the middle act for about 30 minutes where it does start to get really strong, for what it’s worth!
3/5
7) THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN dir. Martin McDonagh
This is a good enough movie that I wish I liked a bit more. Me and writer/director Martin McDonagh just seem to forever not be dancing to the same beat! It’s a strong enough script (McDonagh, a famed playwright, sure knows how to put pen to paper effectively), but it could use a defter and more skilled director at the helm, in my opinion. It’s also a movie where the two true supporting performances (Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon) completely upstage the two leads (Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson, who are okay, but not packing the same punch as the former performers). It’s a movie about one friend abruptly being cut off by his best friend on the small island they reside on in Ireland. It works pretty well until it doesn’t (I think the third act is much weaker than the previous acts). It looks pretty enough, and I’ve thought about it more than movies 8-10 and maybe even movies 5-6 on this list, so it has that going for it, but I think it is still a deeply imperfect film, as a whole!
3/5
6) TRIANGLE OF SADNESS dir. Ruben Östlund
I enjoyed this movie and think it is mostly okay, even if I completely understand every and all criticisms levied against it. It is lacking subtlety in a way that should render it almost unwatchable, and to be fair, at moments, it is! It’s another example of an “Eat-the-rich-Capitalism-is-bad” class-warfare movie about how money and power corrupt any and everything they touch. It’s as on the nose as any movie has ever been, but it mostly works, thanks to a really strong second-act and a fascinating, albeit overlong third act. The cast is uniformly strong, with Harris Dickinson, Dolly de Leon, Woody Harrelson, and Charlbi Dean (RIP) leading the way. It isn’t a perfect movie, by any stretch, but it’s strong enough to earn it the six spot here.
3.5/5
5) ELVIS dir. Baz Luhrman
I suppose when I consider that I have ELVIS, a movie that I think is deeply flawed but good enough, at number five, I actually begin to question the strength of this year’s crop of nominees! ELVIS shouldn’t work. It’s a completely disjointed mess, with insane and kind of bizarre, frenetic editing frequently. It’s bombastic and a sensory overload; essentially, it’s a normal Baz Luhrman film! And the Hanks performance is like… so bad (?) that it almost becomes brilliant and a hoot to watch, but at the end of the day, Austin Butler gives a legitimate movie star performance here as the title character and music legend. It’s some other-worldly terrific acting, elevating a movie that maybe should land in the mediocre tier to a movie that’s one of the five best entries in the Best Picture category. Butler’s 50 or so minutes performing the iconic musical numbers from Elvis’ career make it worth the price of admission, alone. It’s not perfect, but it is a damn good time at the movies! It won’t win, but if it somehow snagged Best Picture, I wouldn’t even be upset!
3.5/5
4) AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER dir. James Cameron
These final four films are the best of the bunch and I would be delighted if any of them somehow managed to win Best Picture! Unfortunately, three of them don’t even really have a shot at it, but such is life! AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER is a magical experience, filled with breathtaking visual effects and photography that legitimately feels out of this world. The return to Pandora is nothing short of wonderful, even if it doesn’t really do anything from a storytelling perspective that would come as a shock or a surprise. That could typically be a detriment, but when the time spent in the world and with the cast is so genuinely gratifying that it really doesn’t matter, I cannot complain! James Cameron is a master of his craft and that mastery is on complete display here! Great movie where each act only improves upon the previous one. Good stuff.
4/5
3) THE FABELMANS dir. Steven Spielberg
What a delightful treat that the third-best film on this list is a deeply emotional and uncompromising portrait of family, childhood, and artistry from one of our Mount Rushmore American auteurs! THE FABELMANS is another hit in a string of impressive late-stage Spielberg efforts. In it, he takes a look at the life of Sammy Fabelman and his family (a stand-in for him and HIS family) and the difficulties that came with his parents’ marriage ending, all while trying to grow up (in often unfamiliar and prejudiced communities) and be an artist constantly capturing the world around him. It’s deeply perverse and devastating and is as beautiful and spellbinding as any movie from this year. Paul Dano does some career best work as the father of the Fabelman unit. He’s depressive and quiet. It’s a very internal performance, the type the Academy never thinks of recognizing (they didn’t!), but it is fantastic. Michelle Williams and Seth Rogen do their usual strong work, even if Michelle may be doing a BIT too much at moments. Gabriel LaBelle, as the young Sammy Fabelman, has gone completely under-the-radar but he is terrific, shouldering much of the load of the movie. As a whole, it’s great. Spielberg is the king of movie magic, and here, he proves why here.
4.5/5
2) TOP GUN: MAVERICK dir. Joseph Kosinski
Early on in the rip-roaring near-masterpiece sequel to the charming 80’s movie of the past, a character says to Tom Cruise, “It’s not too late to stop, buddy. You know what happens to you if you go through with this.”, to which he responds, “I know what happens to everyone else if I don’t.”. From that moment on, the movie had me won over and already misty. Tom Cruise spent much of the 2000s being chastised and admonished as being a weirdo insane person (and to be fair, he probably is), but there have been few things more beautiful in the last few years than seeing everybody collectively turn around and start to admire and praise Cruise again. His committed work in the last few years to making authentic and expertly, smartly crafted action blockbusters that are never insulting or pandering and filled with glorious action set pieces is simply remarkable. That he’s doing it in his late 50s only makes it more commendable. Tom will probably one day die doing a stunt that he shouldn’t be (when he’s 71 or something), but until then, I’m going to find myself grateful every day that he’s here and willing to push himself to the brink for our entertainment and because he believes movies and the theatrical experience is something that should be cherished and held in high esteem. MAVERICK is a brilliant masterpiece of a movie and some of the most fun I’ve had at a theater in years.
4.5/5
1) TÁR dir. Todd Field
Not only is TÁR the best film of 2022 featuring the strongest acting performance of the year, it’s also one of the four best films of the 2020s thus far and features one of the ten finest performances of the last decade. TÁR is the story of esteemed (and psychotic) conductor, Lydia Tár, as her life begins to collapse all around her with the walls closing in because of the consequences of her own actions. It’s a masterpiece, featuring brilliant writing, cinematography, editing, directing, and acting. It’s about as flawless as a movie can be, top-to-bottom, and a genuine whirlwind of a viewing experience. It’s three hours long and not a second is wasted. It will not win Best Picture this year, but it’s far-and-away the strongest of the nominees. It’s a masterpiece in every conceivable way.
5/5
Anyway, those are the major films that will be nominated for a majority of the awards this ceremony. Let’s take a deeper dive into each category now!
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett, BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
Hong Chau, THE WHALE
Kerry Condon, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Jamie Lee Curtis, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Stephanie Hsu, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Currently, this is essentially a three-person race. Bassett has had the lead for much of the race, despite her nomination being a bit goofy and mind-boggling. I love the idea of honoring a screen legend like Bassett for her work, but to honor her for a Disney Marvel CGI-slop movie that, frankly, isn’t that strong and only features her for a little less than half of the runtime seems quite silly to me! In the final weeks, Jamie Lee Curtis has made a strong push, too, for her performance in EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. This is also crazy to me, seeing as she’s not even the best supporting actress in her own MOVIE (I’m not even crazy about the Stephanie Hsu performance, but it is better than Curtis)!! Hong Chau, an actress I ADORE, has simply no shot because she’s in a wretched movie. That leaves Kerry Condon, who I believe against all odds could sneak in and steal this award. It’s the best of the five performances here, and one of the only performances from THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN that I find particularly moving. I’ve spent all week thinking she would win it, to the point I nearly feel it in my bones, but I also believe that this is a dumb voting body and will award Jamie Lee Curtis after all, unfortunately.
Will win: Jamie Lee Curtis, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: Kerry Condon, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Watch out for: Angela Bassett, BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER or Kerry Condon, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Brendan Gleeson, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Brian Tyree Henry, CAUSEWAY
Judd Hirsch, THE FABELMANS
Barry Keoghan, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Ke Huy Quan, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
This is the easiest award of the night to predict: Ke Huy Quan is a lock and will be winning the Oscar on Sunday night. To his credit, it is a good performance (the best of that movie, respectfully) and he will be a worthy winner! It is a great story, too, one acceptable of celebration. Keoghan probably gives the strongest performance out of the bunch in BANSHEES (a movie where the supporting performances are stronger than the main duo), but Ke Huy Quan is simply winning this. Brian Tyree Henry is the most talented actor of the bunch, though, and I would bet my life that he’ll be taking home an Oscar within the next decade.
Will win: Ke Huy Quan, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: Barry Keoghan, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Watch out for: Barry Keoghan, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
GLASS ONION: A KNIVES OUT MYSTERY
LIVING
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
WOMEN TALKING
This is a pretty weak category this year, frankly. WOMEN TALKING will be the movie that will win, but it isn’t that impressive of a screenplay (it’s certainly overwritten and obvious oftentimes). However, it’s a movie that is essentially just women… talking. It’s the obvious pick. I will say… despite TOP GUN: MAVERICK’s weakest aspect of the movie being its screenplay, it should probably win here! It’s the only one that managed to affect me in really any meaningful way! I would say watch out for ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT here, not because the screenplay is so incredible but because it may be indicative that ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT may be a sleeper across the entire ceremony. I doubt it happens and I feel confident WOMEN TALKING will win, but I won’t rule it out!
Will win: WOMEN TALKING
Should win: TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Watch out for: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS
TÁR
TRAINGLE OF SADNESS
It pains me to say this, but EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE is probably going to win this award. Its screenplay is NOT good at all, but it’s probably going that way. This is a screenplay that I think reminds me of something that would’ve been hugely popular in 2012 or something that reads like something that could’ve been written by a frequent Redditor, but it will probably win, regardless. TÀR is comfortably the best screenplay here EASILY (THE FABELMANS would be my second choice), but this is a two-movie race between EEAAO and BANSHEES, which is a good enough screenplay, but definitely not serviced when directed by the same person who wrote it! I’d rather BANSHEES win if it has to be that or EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, but it should be TÁR. Unfortunately, it’s going to be EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE.
Will win: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: TÁR
Watch out for: THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
SOUND
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BATMAN
ELVIS
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
This feels like it’ll be a slam-dunk win for TOP GUN: MAVERICK. The Academy always loves to give the sound category to a war movie or a musical, so we can almost instantly knock THE BATMAN off. ELVIS has strong sound, but it also doesn’t seem to have the legs like that. AVATAR has strong sound, but it has a much stronger case to be made for winning Visual Effects. This feels like a two-movie race between ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT and TOP GUN: MAVERICK. MAVERICK’s use of sound is stronger, in my opinion, and there may not be many ways for the academy to recognize Joe Kosinski and Tom Cruise’s excellent picture outside of here, so I anticipate they comfortably take this home and TOP GUN gets shown some love!
Will win: TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Should win: TOP GUN: MAVERICK
Watch out for: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
COSTUME DESIGN
BABYLON
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS
Like a lot of these categories, this feels like a two-movie race. In my opinion, BABYLON features the most impressive and visually dazzling costumes (the Academy loves to recognize a period movie about movies, too, for what it’s worth) but this is absolutely between BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER and ELVIS. ELVIS features terrific costumes and of the two, I imagine they would sooner give it to Catherine Martin, the woman responsible for the extravagant period costumes in ELVIS before they award Ruth Carter for the second time in the last five years, seeing as she just won it for the original BLACK PANTHER and those costumes were a bit stronger than the ones in WAKANDA FOREVER. It’s probably fair to rule out MRS. HARRIS GOES TO PARIS (fake movie??) and EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. A BABYLON win would be fun, but I expect this one is going ELVIS’ direction!
Will win: ELVIS
Should win: BABYLON
Watch out for: BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
ELVIS
THE WHALE
For much of the race, the expectation has been that THE WHALE would win, given that the makeup team behind the movie used extreme amounts of prosthetics to effectively make Brendan Fraser appear as if he were 600 pounds. I’m boldly predicting that THE WHALE is going to be shutout in this ceremony, and that shutout will start with THE WHALE narrowly failing to notch a win here. ELVIS is going to pull off the minor upset and win, due to the fact that the makeup and styling of Butler as Elvis, especially near the end of his life, is quite excellently done. THE WHALE could easily win and it wouldn’t shocking, but I think ELVIS is going to win a couple of these down-ballot categories, this being one of them!
Will win: ELVIS
Should win: ELVIS
Watch out for: THE WHALE
PRODUCTION DESIGN
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
BABYLON
ELVIS
THE FABELMANS
This is a really deep and strong category this year! Any of these would be worthy and deserving winners in almost any other year! To my delight, I expect one of my favorite (and one of the most underrated) movies from 2022 to be awarded here! It’s going to be BABYLON, which succeeds in the impressively difficult job of transforming modern day Los Angeles into the Los Angeles of the late 20s-early 30s, completely transporting audiences back into the day when movies went from silent films into what are known now as “talkies”. Chazelle’s BABYLON features immaculate production design and the only threat to it taking home the trophy on Sunday is the production design from ELVIS, which also is quite adeptly done and worthy of praise. Still, I feel fairly confident that this one is a near lock and BABYLON will finish the ceremony taking home a statue of some sort!
Will win: BABYLON
Should win: BABYLON
Watch out for: ELVIS
VISUAL EFFECTS
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BATMAN
BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
This category is a wrap. It will be going to James Cameron’s dazzling looking AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER, which legitimately features technology and visual effects that have being worked on for more than a decade. The result is an eye-popping and brilliant looking movie. Pandora glistens and shines and is the result of incredible CGI and visual effects and this will be the lone spot in the ceremony that AVATAR will be recognized. I suppose there is a very VERY outside chance that TOP GUN: MAVERICK could steal this, but if that happens, MAVERICK may then be on its way towards stealing Best Picture, too. Possible, but highly unlikely. Look for AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER to take this one home with ease!
Will win: AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
Should win: AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
Watch out for: TOP GUN: MAVERICK
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON
PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH
THE SEA BEAST
TURNING RED
Outside of Actor in a Supporting Role, this is the next easiest category to predict! It’ll be GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO, which, despite me not loving that movie, is superbly animated with impeccably crafted stop motion. This category this year is full of some incredibly diverse and unique forms of animation, which is to be celebrated and commended, but Guillermo is an old Hollywood legend and beloved within the Academy community and should prove to be too much for the other nominees. PUSS IN BOOTS: THE LAST WISH has had an excellent box office run the last few months and shouldn’t totally be counted out, to be fair! It’s a cute enough movie with excellent animation, even if it’s just SEVENTH SEAL for toddlers! A24’s indie hit MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON (a movie that wasn’t for me at all but certainly stretches the category in ways rarely managed) has maybe the best possible chance of stealing this, but I’d bet good money this is going to end up being Guillermo’s by the time the night is concluded.
Will win: GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
Should win: GUILLERMO DEL TORO’S PINOCCHIO
Watch out for: MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
BABYLON
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS
Outside of the Margot Robbie performance, which is spellbinding and one of 2022’s strongest, the aspect of BABYLON that excels the highest is the Justin Hurwitz score. It’s the Vegas favorite to win, despite the strong late surge coming from the direction of the ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT score, which, frankly, is an almost abysmal and emotionally obvious score that is both completely distracting and entirely anachronistic in a way that doesn’t even feel purposeful. I’m lower on ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT than most, but what seems unanimous is that even people who aren’t in love with the movie find the score to still be quite excellent! This is quizzical to me! It’s a bad score! In fact, I find the nominees for this category this year to be a little baffling! If I wasn’t going to pick BABYLON, I suppose the score from THE FABELMANS is mostly affecting, but overall, weak category! It should and will be BABYLON, likely giving it two trophies on the night!
Will win: BABYLON
Should win: BABYLON
Watch out for: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Applause” -Diane Warren (TELL IT LIKE A WOMAN)
“Hold My Hand” -Lady Gaga and BloodPop (TOP GUN: MAVERICK)
“Lift Me Up” -Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Goransson (BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER)
“Naatu Naatu” -M.M. Keeravaani and Chandrabose (RRR)
“This Is a Life” -Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski (EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE)
This is a mostly silly category, typically always rewarding songs that are made by a famous person to be stuck at the end of the movie to play during the credits! This year, however, features a wonderful original song that comes during the course of the movie and is expertly composed and performed! That song, of course, is RRR’s “Naatu Naatu”, which is an utter delight and will comfortably win the Oscar for Original song. I don’t see any other song really having any chance of upsetting, but I suppose if something were to steal this one, it could possibly be Rihanna’s “Lift Me Up” from BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER. Still, that feels highly unlikely. “Naatu Naatu” will take home the gold!
Will win: “Naatu Naatu” -M.M. Keeravaani and Chandrabose (RRR)
Should win: “Naatu Naatu” -M.M. Keeravaani and Chandrabose (RRR)
Watch out for: “Lift Me Up” -Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Goransson (BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER)
FILM EDITING
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
TÁR
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
I’ve already predicted a TOP GUN: MAVERICK win for Sound, but I also really like it to possibly steal the Film Editing Oscar. This category is between MAVERICK and EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, and while the latter may win, I am holding out hope that the academy can recognize that having the most edits is not synonymous with having the best editing! TÁR probably features the strongest editing of the year (the cut from her plunking out notes on her piano into conducting the Mahler is a masterful edit, for what it’s worth), but it isn’t going to be TÁR winning. MAVERICK’s editing is pretty seminal, legitimately ratcheting up tension in all aerial scenes and truly making it feel as if audiences are flying with the rest of the cast. It’s sharp editing that feels extremely intentional. In a smart world, it will take home the award, but I also am not entirely sure that we live in a smart world! This is one of the most difficult categories for me to pick this year, but if there was a gun to my head, I would assume EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE wins this.
Will win: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: TÁR, but TOP GUN: MAVERICK is a worthy choice
Watch out for: TOP GUN: MAVERICK
CINEMATOGRAPHY
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
BARDO, FALSE CHRONICLE OF A HANDFUL OF TRUTHS
ELVIS
EMPIRE OF LIGHT
TÁR
This is an odd category, featuring two titles that stick out like a sore thumb in this ceremony, those being BARDO and EMPIRE OF LIGHT. EMPIRE OF LIGHT features cinematography from the legendary Roger Deakins. It’s the best part of the movie, but it’s also a movie that is TERRIBLE and has no business netting any nominations! BARDO is shot well enough, but it’s almost so obnoxious in its cinematography that, despite looking “good”, it almost becomes a distraction! Of these nominees, TÁR certainly features the strongest cinematography but it also will not be winning! This is between ELVIS (which has strong cinematography, to be fair) and ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT, which is going to win. It’s not superbly strong, often overly cute and show-offy, as far as cinematography is concerned, but it’s going to be the winner this year. Such is life!
Will win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Should win: TÁR
Watch out for: ELVIS
DIRECTING
Todd Field, TÁR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE All AT ONCE
Martin McDonagh, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Ruben Östlund, TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
Steven Spielberg, THE FABELMANS
In a fair and just world, this would be a race between Todd Field and Steven Spielberg, and in that world, I would be more than thrilled with either result! We would either see one of our greatest auteurs honored for what might be the last notable time in his illustrious career or we would see the director responsible for one of the strongest films of the decade (thus far) honored. Instead, we are absolutely going to watch two hacks get up onstage and be praised for making a very average (at best) movie! The Daniels will absolutely be winning this, barring a genuinely unprecedented push for Spielberg in the final days. It’s the Daniels’ award to lose, unfortunately!
Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE All AT ONCE
Should win: Todd Field, TÁR
Watch out for: Steven Spielberg, THE FABELMANS
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Ana De Armas, BLONDE
Andrea Riseborough, TO LESLIE
Michelle Williams, THE FABELMANS
Michelle Yeoh, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Just like how I believe that the NBA MVP should go to the best and most impactful player on one of the two or three best teams from the regular season, I believe the Best Actress and Best Actor in a Leading Role Oscar should be awarded to the strongest and most impactful actress or actor that is showcased in one of the strongest movies. For instance, it is completely nonsensical that Andrea Riseborough was nominated for TO LESLIE… If she gave one of the five strongest performances by a lead actress this year, TO LESLIE would’ve probably been one of the 20 or so best movies of the year. Instead, it mostly fails on many levels! If she was onscreen for 90% of the movie and the movie falls flat, much of that must fall on her shoulders! Ana De Armas gives a terrific performance in a movie everybody (but me) hated! Michelle Williams is a lead (barely), but also the weakest of the three main performances in her respective movie. That leaves Michelle Yeoh, a screen icon and beloved actress, for her performance in EVERYTHING EVERYWEHRE ALL AT ONCE (a fine but very flawed movie that she is very good in) and Cate Blanchett for her performance in TÁR, which is one of the three best movies of the last three years and one of the 10 or so finest performances of the last decade! Michelle winning for EEAAO would be like the 2017 Russell Westbrook MVP… a fun enough story but something that will not age well! Cate winning would be like the 2016 Steph Curry MVP. It should be Blanchett, and though Vegas has Yeoh as the favorite right now, I have a feeling Cate Blanchett will prevail by the end of the night.
Will win: Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Should win: Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Watch out for: Michelle Yeoh, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler, ELVIS
Colin Farrell, THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
Brendan Fraser, THE WHALE
Paul Mescal, AFTERSUN
Bill Nighy, LIVING
Paul Mescal should win this. Again, he gives the strongest performance of the five listed nominees and because of his performance, elevates AFTERSUN into one of the six strongest movies of the year! He will not win (he has the fourth-best odds), but he should. I am, however, very very okay with an Austin Butler win and I believe he will take home the trophy. Obviously, the favorite all season long has been Brendan Fraser for his garish and repulsive performance from THE WHALE, but the Academy loves to award somebody for playing a real person in a bio-pic and Butler, to his credit, is tremendous, elevating a movie that would otherwise be quite mediocre without him. I could see a world where Farrell somehow steals it for his work in BANSHEES or Fraser being rewarded for flailing around and debasing himself, but I think Butler wins it.
Will win: Austin Butler, ELVIS
Should win: Paul Mescal, AFTERSUN
Watch out for: Brendan Fraser, THE WHALE
PICTURE
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER
THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN
ELVIS
EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
THE FABELMANS
TÁR
TOP GUN: MAVERICK
TRIANGLE OF SADNESS
WOMEN TALKING
I’m hoping to be wrong, I really am, but I fear that I will not be. In the year of 2023, the weakest of the 10 nominees, EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE, is going to end up winning Best Picture. In a fair and proper world, the best movie of the year, TÁR (or even THE FABELMANS), would run away with this award! Even a TOP GUN: MAVERICK win would make me deeply happy, to the point that I’m almost sort of rooting for that result. TÁR and THE FABELMANS appear to have no shot, whereas at least TOP GUN: MAVERICK could be looked at as a way for the Academy to finally recognize and award one of the greatest movie stars of all time (Spielberg was recently seen thanking Tom Cruise for “saving Hollywood’s ass”)… I just don’t foresee this happening, as wonderful and as shocking as it would be! It’s going to be EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE. If it’s not, it’ll be one of THE BANSHEES OF INISHERIN, TOP GUN: MAVERICK, or ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT. My pick for a shocking upset would be TOP GUN: MAVERICK, unless we see early on that ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT is picking up every single down-ballot award, but we should certainly expect EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE to cement itself in Oscar history, much to the chagrin of myself and many others!
Will win: EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
Should win: TÁR, TOP GUN: MAVERICK, or THE FABELMANS
Watch out for: TOP GUN: MAVERICK or ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
ADDITIONAL CATEGORY PREDICTIONS
Unlike all of the other above categories, where I managed to watch every single movie listed, in these categories below, I was only able to see some of the listed entries. For that reason alone, I feel like I cannot adequately get into detail for each category. Still, based off of Vegas odds and what I’ve read and heard from industry people, I have what I believe to be a pretty good feel for what is going to excel in this categories. International Feature is particularly easy, seeing as ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT is also a Best Picture nominee. I found ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED deeply moving, as far as Documentary Features go, but I do expect NAVALNY to take the award home. My goal next year is a bit steep, but I plan on seeing every single entry nominated in every category and hopefully I’ll be able to give a bit more thought and insight into these five categories in the future!
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
ALL THAT BREATHES
ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED
FIRE OF LOVE
A HOUSE MADE OF SPLINTERS
NAVALNY
Will win: NAVALNY
Should win: ALL THE BEAUTY AND THE BLOODSHED
Watch out for: FIRE OF LOVE
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
ARGENTINA, 1985
CLOSE
EO
THE QUIET GIRL
Will win: ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT
Should win: EO
Watch out for: CLOSE
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
THE ELEPHANT WHISPERERS
HAULOUT
HOW DO YOU MEASURE A YEAR?
THE MARTHA MITCHELL EFFECT
STRANGER AT THE GATE
Will win: THE ELEPHANT WHISPERERS
Should win: HAULOUT
Watch out for: STRANGER AT THE GATE
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
AN IRISH GOODBYE
IVALU
LE PUPILLE
NIGHT RIDE
THE RED SUITCASE
Will win: LE PUPILLE
Should win: LE PUPILLE
Watch out for: AN IRISH GOODBYE
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE
THE FLYING SAILOR
ICE MERCHANTS
MY YEAR OF DICKS
AN OSTRICH TOLD ME THE WORLD IS FAKE AND I THINK I BELIEVE IT
Will win: THE BOY, THE MOLE, THE FOX AND THE HORSE
Should win: MY YEAR OF DICKS
Watch out for: MY YEAR OF DICKS
And lastly, here are some interesting parlays for the night for any degenerates out there:
1) The EEAAO near-sweep (+954):
EEAAO, Picture (-1200)
EEAAO, Editing (-240)
EEAAO, Original Screenplay (-190)
Daniels, Director (-1800)
Michelle Yeoh, Lead Actress (-210)
Ke Huy Quan, Supporting Actor (-2000)
Jamie Lee Curtis, Supporting Actress (+175)
Seven legs. Bet $100 to earn $954. Perhaps the smartest ticket of the night.
2) The TOP GUN upset (+10,588)
TOP GUN: MAVERICK, Best Picture (+2900)
TOP GUN: MAVERICK, Best Sound (-400)
TOP GUN: MAVERICK, Best Editing (+185)
Three legs. Bet $100 to earn $10,588. HIGHLY unlikely, but if it steals editing and EEAO shows weakness throughout the ceremony, it becomes possible.
3) Mike’s Actor/Actress Picks in a Fair and Just World (+1734)
Ke Huy Quan, Supporting Actor (-2000)
Kerry Condon, Supporting Actress (+210)
Austin Butler, Lead Actor (+130)
Cate Blanchett, Lead Actress (+145)
Four legs. Bet $100 to win $1,734. Again, unlikely, mostly because of the Condon pick, but not out of the question! And would be my favorite result of the night!
4) Mike’s Actor/Actress Picks in a Sad and Cruel World (+577)
Ke Huy Quan, Supporting Actor (-2000)
Jamie Lee Curtis, Supporting Actress (+175)
Brendan Fraser, Lead Actor (-170)
Michelle Yeoh, Lead Actress (-210)
Four legs. Bet $100 to win $577. Essentially, the four performers most expected to win in the acting categories this year!
5) Mike goes 8/8 in the “Big Eight” Categories for the First Year After Going 7/8 For Three Years Straight (+3876)
Ke Huy Quan, Supporting Actor (-2000)
Jamie Lee Curtis, Supporting Actress (+175)
Austin Butler, Lead Actor (+130)
Cate Blanchett, Lead Actress (+145)
EEAAO, Original Screenplay (-190)
Women Talking, Adapted Screenplay (-250)
EEAAO, Picture (-1200)
Daniels, Director (-1800)
Eight legs. Bet $100 to win $3,876. Every year for the last three, I’ve picked seven of the eight “Big Eight” categories correctly… maybe this is the year I go 8/8? Gamble responsibly!
Movies. Music. Mike. 